ValidationProven Pattern

Invest as much effort in choosing what to work on as in the actual execution

Problem selection is a bigger determinant of outcome than effort. Working hard on the wrong problem yields worse results than average work on the right problem. Market forces are more powerful than individual effort - being at odds with larger trends means getting steamrolled regardless of execution quality.

When to use

Before committing to build any product, especially when tempted to just start working on a technically interesting problem

Don't do this

Assuming that harder work will fix a bad market choice, or picking problems based on technical interest rather than market opportunity

5 Founders Who Did This

1
YC-backed startup (previous venture)by Ayo Omojola

Co-founded a company tackling a technically interesting problem without evaluating market size, then worked extremely hard for years

Result:Company failed because they hadn't chosen a large enough market - realized they'd invested all effort in work, not in choosing what to work on
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2
First Round Capital Advisoryby Jeanette Mellinger

Created three-pillar problem-solution fit framework (Founder, Problem, Solution) with specific deliverables for each pillar. Advocates founders invest deliberately in understanding their own strengths and fit alongside customer and solution discovery

Result:Helps founders build stable foundations before pursuing product-market fit - the founder component is identified as the most commonly skipped yet most critical element
3
Hipmob / Cash App / Substrateby Ayo Omojola

After Hipmob, Omojola developed a framework to invest as much effort choosing what to work on as in actual execution, using his '40% rule' to eliminate dead-end opportunities quickly

Result:Applied this discipline to select Cash App banking (9-figure revenue), Carbon Health (30x growth), and Substrate (YC S24 medical billing AI)
4
Mercuryby Immad Akhund

Akhund first had the idea in 2013 but shelved it for 4 years. When he finally committed in 2017, he spent 4 months just on research before writing code. He invested as much effort in understanding what to build and how to structure the business as in the actual execution.

Result:Chose the right architecture (sponsor bank model), avoided common regulatory pitfalls, and built correct product from day one — no major pivots needed
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5
Applied Intuitionby Qasar Younis

Spent 10+ years accumulating experiences across engineering, finance, PM, investing at YC, and two startups before founding Applied Intuition at the right moment

Result:Built $15B company by leveraging pattern-matching from diverse experiences across functions
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