Increase your odds of success by building many small bets instead of one big one
The cost of experimentation is so low today that you should build many small projects and double down on what resonates. Each failure increases your probability of eventual success - you are not unlucky, you just haven't tested enough ideas yet. Most will fail, one will click.
When to use
When discouraged by failed products or unsure which idea to pursue
Don't do this
Betting everything on one big idea or giving up after first failure
6 Founders Who Did This
Failed 15-20 products before AudioPen. Says 'cost of experimentation is so low, build a bunch of things and see what sticks. I was bound to get lucky at some point.'
Tried six different SaaS ideas before Faceless Video, each failure taught lessons and increased probability of eventual success
Shipped 10-15 small products over a year (Mood to Movie, Habits Garden, link-in-bio tool, landing page generator, productivity tips tool). Each was a small bet building skills and audience.
Shipped 16 products in 2 years as small bets. Each was a tiny experiment building skills and audience. Most failed commercially but each increased probability of eventual success
Advocates building ten $100M companies instead of one $1B company; each Late Checkout venture targets $20K-$50K/month in profit before moving to next
Built many small bets over 12 months instead of committing to one big idea